As well as writing about Britain I am also writing about the outlook for the world over the next couple of years. I have been reading reams of articles and ploughing through drifts of data to try and understand what is going on. I have just heard someone on the radio say that J K Galbraith (economist who wrote about the depression of the 1930s) describing economic forecasting as something that astrology look respectable. For me, this is cheering news as I was wondering about adding predictions about being in the year of Ox to the otherwise gloomy list. (Year of the Ox means determined hard work, small gains and steady progress - compared to most forecasts this is positively optimistic).
Anyway, having looked at the economic statistics I wondered why the news is so negative when the overall falls in the economy as relatively small. Even the latest IMF figures are expecting only a few percentage point falls. Why if 96% of the spending continues does the missing 4% make such a difference.
Luckily for me I went to a party and managed to talk to a well-respected economist about this (which has saved me days of trying to read economic text books). He explained that in Europe if we have less than 2% growth then jobs will be lost. Apparently ongoing efficiency measures mean that there tends to be 2% increase in efficiency each year and that usually means fewer jobs. So if growth is less than 2% then lots of people tend to lose their job. And that is where we are at the moment.
I am still going to concentrate on the 90+% of the economy that is still there. For those who have lost their or don't have a regular income (self-employed etc) then there is good reason to stop spending. But for those with a job and a regular income, please go and do some shopping. Your country needs you to shop.
Friday, 30 January 2009
Tuesday, 27 January 2009
Lost?
In order to get on and write this book I have joined a writing group. And it's been a transformation to be able to talk with fellow writers. They have provided a fantastic support system and sounding board. This weekend we had our final seminar. One of the exercises was to write about something that we'd lost from our project. I sat down to think. How could one write about something not there.
Then suddenly my brain sprang into action. I had lost of the key themes I was supposed to be writing about. It's there in the text, but hidden away. The irony is that the missing theme is 'attention'. I hadn't been paying attention to myself.
As I travelled around Britain it struck me what social beings we are and how much we need the attention of others to thrive. People seem to write much more about individuality and selfishness than about sociability and our need for connection. It seems that this need for attention is built into us. I watched babies try to capture the attention of everyone. Trying to make eye contact with mothers distracted by phones and friends. But the babies seemed happy enough to try and find other people with whom to connect. The lady at the checkout, the person standing behind their mum. I wonder what impact the new double decker pushchairs will have. They may me feel claustrophobic to look at them.
It's funny that we are all taught how to present ourselves but not how to listen. I once wrote a paper about creativity, saying that it needs people to listen. But most people read 'listen' as 'talk'. Not the same thing. Perhaps it's the current fashion for treating life as a business. If we try and be productive and dynamic all the time then there is lots of talking and much less listening.
I realise that in writing this blog post, I am talking rather than listening. It is one of the strange paradoxes of this new world of technology that there are more opportunities to talk but fewer people with time to listen.
But we all know how nice it is when someone else really listens and pays attention to us. And most can tell the difference between the apparent listening of customer service standards and the real listening. For someone to pay attention is to acknowledge you. You the person. I have a hunch that many of the most disruptive in society are those who feel that they are invisible and unvalued by society. The need for attention is so strong that even scorn is better than being ignored.
But there was I not paying enough attention to myself. So what is it within you that needs a little more attention?
Then suddenly my brain sprang into action. I had lost of the key themes I was supposed to be writing about. It's there in the text, but hidden away. The irony is that the missing theme is 'attention'. I hadn't been paying attention to myself.
As I travelled around Britain it struck me what social beings we are and how much we need the attention of others to thrive. People seem to write much more about individuality and selfishness than about sociability and our need for connection. It seems that this need for attention is built into us. I watched babies try to capture the attention of everyone. Trying to make eye contact with mothers distracted by phones and friends. But the babies seemed happy enough to try and find other people with whom to connect. The lady at the checkout, the person standing behind their mum. I wonder what impact the new double decker pushchairs will have. They may me feel claustrophobic to look at them.
It's funny that we are all taught how to present ourselves but not how to listen. I once wrote a paper about creativity, saying that it needs people to listen. But most people read 'listen' as 'talk'. Not the same thing. Perhaps it's the current fashion for treating life as a business. If we try and be productive and dynamic all the time then there is lots of talking and much less listening.
I realise that in writing this blog post, I am talking rather than listening. It is one of the strange paradoxes of this new world of technology that there are more opportunities to talk but fewer people with time to listen.
But we all know how nice it is when someone else really listens and pays attention to us. And most can tell the difference between the apparent listening of customer service standards and the real listening. For someone to pay attention is to acknowledge you. You the person. I have a hunch that many of the most disruptive in society are those who feel that they are invisible and unvalued by society. The need for attention is so strong that even scorn is better than being ignored.
But there was I not paying enough attention to myself. So what is it within you that needs a little more attention?
Friday, 23 January 2009
Britain
I have to write about what the world is coming to. All the reading I'm doing is making it all sound very scary. But the at the moment the sky is blue and the bulbs in my window box are beginning to peer throw. Should I see this as a sign of optimism? Or just be very worried about what is happening to the economy? For now, I think I'll concentrate on the bulbs.
Tuesday, 6 January 2009
What is this?
I am writing a book about Britain. This blog is a record of things I am thinking about as I write. Some of it may make sense, it's likely to be a bit of a ramble at time. It may also be a record of me testing my thinking and trying to work out what I want to say. I may well contradict myself over time. I'm not sure how it will progress.
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