How can it be so long

since I last wrote anything? The summer seems to have evaporated in my hands (again). I am still watching and wondering but writing little.

Today the news is trying to make out that many parts of Britain are like The Wire. I'm reading The Corner which is about the time the writers spent in Baltimore - it's very good but don't think Britain is quite the same.Drugs are certainly a problem and available everywhere, but haven't seen any open air markets as in The Wire. Drugs are a global business now, and so there might be places but don't think anything is quite that open.Perhaps indoor markets rather than outdoor markets.

But for now back to writing and trying to resist the compelling story of the Corner

beginning and ending

I have been trying to write the conclusions chapter. I know it is slightly too soon because I am still trying to work out the details. But I tried and there is a chapter. When I read it through the beginning feels like the introduction, not the conclusion.

I'm trying to work out whether or not this is a problem. It is because it isn't working, but I may just sleep on it and hope my unconscious mind can work out the answer. And the conclusions.

It's nearly spring

I was wondering along the banks of the Oxford canal and saw and heard the first lambs of the year. They were gambolling around in picture book fashion. There were dozens of boats moored on the canal. Now I want to live on a boat. And I want to find a map of the canals of Britain. Wonder if they get used for transport or only for leisure.

We are all on a diet

The Bank of England has just announced it is going to print more money (well they call it quantitative easing). They are doing it because the other measures don't seem to have worked to get more money into the system. The assumption seems to be that with more money around we will borrow and go shopping.

But what if we have all decided to put ourselves on a financial diet for the time being.

I have joked that for the past few years my weight and my bank balance were going in opposite and wrong directions. More money, less weight, good. Less money and more weight, depressing. But what if we have all decided that we have to stay on a financial diet for the next months or even years.

If our resolve holds good then we will ignore the temptations to take on debt (sweet temptations) and will either save (eat virtuous vegetables) or at least spend only what we have. We would still be spending most of our money, but less impulsively. This might be good for our personal bank balances (and waistlines) but less good for the economy as a whole. For years we have been spending (and eating) too much.

So it makes sense to cut back. Doesn't it? So is the Bank wise to encourage us to go shopping? Or should it all go on saving? Is there any point trying to save any more? It all seems very odd and I'm not sure anyone understands the psychology of what is going on. If they don't understand our motivations, then how can good policy decisions be made?

For the bankers and speculators it may be a new world (with few deals there are few fees and it does seem as if those days are gone). But for the real economy, it seems back to front. Savers are being punished so should we all become speculators?

Either way I think that many people are now wary and want to know they have some money to tide them over a crisis. They don't want to spend on unnecessary items. A lot of the slowdown may have come from people deciding to stop and think about what they are buying. That's what I've done. And it seems that businesses might be doing the same. Several of the businesspeople I have interviewed recently said they realised that they had extra premises they weren't using or too many vehicles, or more people than needed. So they've cut back to what they need.

But this streamlining, combined with the credit crunch may be what has made the slowdown so severe. Is it moving away from the 'global' and back to the 'local'. Not 'local' in the sense of being protectionist, but 'local' in the sense of 'what matters to me'

My hunch is that many will stick to their financial diet rather better than the nutritional one. So quantitative easing may seem like the 'friend' who tries to tempt you with chocolate cake when you have just told them you are on a diet.

Are there two economies out there?

I have spent this week travelling around Britain doing some interviewing and generally seeing what has changed in the past few months. There appear to be a lot more empty offices out there. A few less shops but generally high streets look in better nick than some of the business parks.

I asked at the various hotels and restaurants I visited how business was going. Pretty well, they all said with some surprise. Everyone had been expecting the worst, but a number said their business was up on last year. This seems at odds with what I read in the news. Last week I was talking to bankers and they do seem scared by it all.

But with this gap in what is going on I began to wonder if there are two economies running in parallel. The global economy which does all the modern clever stuff with financing. Here companies do everything on debt, you rent your offices, outsource as much as possible, make money on the turn. It's all in the abstract notions of shareholder value. Making money out of money. Here the news does seem to be bad because it is so difficult to find money.

The other, which I'll call the local economy is business as it used to be. Whether making things or providing a service, it is a slower growing model. Grow organically, perhaps borrow a bit to expand the business but all rather considered and cautious. You know your customers and they know you. Here the impact of the global slowdown seems to be rather less. It may not be easy out there, but it's not that bad either.

Before we all get too complacent, it may just be a timing thing and as the year goes on and unemployment rises, these businesses will suffer as well. But for the time being it seems as if there are two parallel worlds out there and only one is a rollercoaster (at the moment).

Fairness

I have been thinking about fairness quite a lot. It is one of those things that has been rattling around in the back of my brain. But it always feels rather childlike to say 'it's not fair'. But there now seems to be step change in the unfairness of what is happening

I think that fairness has been coming under increasing pressure. We Brits like things to be fair (not that everyone has to have the same thing). I have a hunch that fairness is one of those fundamental parts of our culture. Without it, there is no legitimacy and anarchy lurks.

The broad sense of unfairness has been looming for a while. The actions of the banks have taken this to another stage and the pension of Sir Fred Goodwin seems to be on the verge of taking it a step further. I wonder if he realises how out of touch he is with the real world. It would appear not.

Ignoring the growing sense of injustice is worrying. Fairness has been coming under pressure from many sides - traffic rules that seem to be about revenue generation, fortnightly rubbish collection with rising council tax, decisions about war that seem to be based on less than half truths, the rich getting richer, the poor taxpayer footing the bill, small pressure points but all building up and feeling as if they might all soon come to a head. There are police predictions about riots and they seem to understand what is going on. I shall be foregoing barricade building until the weather improves. In the meantime I am going to read up about Wat Tyler. Smithfield anyone?

Hidden workers

As I travelled around Britain I was fascinated to find out where everyone worked. There seemed to be lots of new houses. Small rural towns that I knew as a child now seemed to be ringed with housing estates, but there was no sign where everyone was working.

I am still struggling to work out where everyone works. I have been going through the government statistics which are interesting and give a few clues. Firstly how few people are working, the population is 61 million (give or take) but there are only 31 million economically active people (and that includes those who are unemployed but available for work). There are the young and the old who aren't working, but there are still lots of people not working.

Wholesale/retail is the largest single sector account for 4.5 million jobs, followed by 4.2 million people who are self-employed. There is then a category called 'rent and other business services' which accounts for a further 4.2 million; this is followed by 3.3 million people working in health and social work and 2.2 million in education. After this the numbers fall, there are (or were at the end of 2008) more estate agents than people employed in farming, fishing, forestry and the Armed Forces added together.

But the figures don't tell me that much. The big categories hide as much as they reveal. We seem to have become a nation of shoppers as well as shopkeepers, so the recession will bite hard and deep.

It's also struck me that lots of work is hidden work. We don't know what it takes to get the stuff we buy into the shops and perhaps that is where people are working. We recognise the person who takes the money and gives us the goods, but don't think about the finance department and the cleaners, the stylists and delivery drivers.

These days it is difficult to work out what people do from the clothes they wear. Perhaps it's a sign of changing times, but sometimes it's difficult to know exactly what it is that most of your friends are doing at work.

Depression or liberation?

I continue to plough through depressing economic predictions and it is hard to see how the 'big world' of finance can recover quickly. But there are cheering signs of how people are coping.

From my travels around Britain I had a strong sense that lots of people were getting bored with endless shopping, but it was difficult for them to talk about it. The discussion was all about designer this and that. It was all about leveraging assets, to save was to be foolish.

Interest in growing your own food was rising. Gardens and allotments were full of fruit and veg. Allotments were attracting a new generations of growers (albeit sometimes leading to different views of the traditional allotment holders). Today I hear that sales of sewing machines are booming and classes teaching people to knit and sew are filling up quickly. So it looks as if the economic future might be gloomy, but even so people might be able to have a good time on a budget.

After all, it is the people who matter most. It was interesting to watch how London changed in the snow.Everyone was forced to slow down, and suddenly people started to chat. The lack of public transport meant there were more people walking and chatting. It's largely back to 'normal' now, and most are plugged into their ipods once more.But for a day it was fun.

Risk and what happened to our money

As well as explaining the 2% rule Paul Ormerod also told me of an article he wrote about risk and why the economy all went wrong. This is a link to the article http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article360204
For at least half an hour after reading it I understood why the economy is in such a mess when most of us have continued to pay our mortgages.

Snow has provided the perfect day for staying in and writing. But I have been distracted by the scenes outside my window. Everything is white. This morning there were more people walking to work than cars. The buses had been sent to bed early and not allowed out all day. Despite the chaos most people seemed cheery, lots of cameras flashing to capture the moment, snowmen being built and over-excited children and slightly less excited adults.

Unravelling the economy

As well as writing about Britain I am also writing about the outlook for the world over the next couple of years. I have been reading reams of articles and ploughing through drifts of data to try and understand what is going on. I have just heard someone on the radio say that J K Galbraith (economist who wrote about the depression of the 1930s) describing economic forecasting as something that astrology look respectable. For me, this is cheering news as I was wondering about adding predictions about being in the year of Ox to the otherwise gloomy list. (Year of the Ox means determined hard work, small gains and steady progress - compared to most forecasts this is positively optimistic).

Anyway, having looked at the economic statistics I wondered why the news is so negative when the overall falls in the economy as relatively small. Even the latest IMF figures are expecting only a few percentage point falls. Why if 96% of the spending continues does the missing 4% make such a difference.

Luckily for me I went to a party and managed to talk to a well-respected economist about this (which has saved me days of trying to read economic text books). He explained that in Europe if we have less than 2% growth then jobs will be lost. Apparently ongoing efficiency measures mean that there tends to be 2% increase in efficiency each year and that usually means fewer jobs. So if growth is less than 2% then lots of people tend to lose their job. And that is where we are at the moment.

I am still going to concentrate on the 90+% of the economy that is still there. For those who have lost their or don't have a regular income (self-employed etc) then there is good reason to stop spending. But for those with a job and a regular income, please go and do some shopping. Your country needs you to shop.

Lost?

In order to get on and write this book I have joined a writing group. And it's been a transformation to be able to talk with fellow writers. They have provided a fantastic support system and sounding board. This weekend we had our final seminar. One of the exercises was to write about something that we'd lost from our project. I sat down to think. How could one write about something not there.

Then suddenly my brain sprang into action. I had lost of the key themes I was supposed to be writing about. It's there in the text, but hidden away. The irony is that the missing theme is 'attention'. I hadn't been paying attention to myself.

As I travelled around Britain it struck me what social beings we are and how much we need the attention of others to thrive. People seem to write much more about individuality and selfishness than about sociability and our need for connection. It seems that this need for attention is built into us. I watched babies try to capture the attention of everyone. Trying to make eye contact with mothers distracted by phones and friends. But the babies seemed happy enough to try and find other people with whom to connect. The lady at the checkout, the person standing behind their mum. I wonder what impact the new double decker pushchairs will have. They may me feel claustrophobic to look at them.

It's funny that we are all taught how to present ourselves but not how to listen. I once wrote a paper about creativity, saying that it needs people to listen. But most people read 'listen' as 'talk'. Not the same thing. Perhaps it's the current fashion for treating life as a business. If we try and be productive and dynamic all the time then there is lots of talking and much less listening.

I realise that in writing this blog post, I am talking rather than listening. It is one of the strange paradoxes of this new world of technology that there are more opportunities to talk but fewer people with time to listen.

But we all know how nice it is when someone else really listens and pays attention to us. And most can tell the difference between the apparent listening of customer service standards and the real listening. For someone to pay attention is to acknowledge you. You the person. I have a hunch that many of the most disruptive in society are those who feel that they are invisible and unvalued by society. The need for attention is so strong that even scorn is better than being ignored.

But there was I not paying enough attention to myself. So what is it within you that needs a little more attention?

Britain

I have to write about what the world is coming to. All the reading I'm doing is making it all sound very scary. But the at the moment the sky is blue and the bulbs in my window box are beginning to peer throw. Should I see this as a sign of optimism? Or just be very worried about what is happening to the economy? For now, I think I'll concentrate on the bulbs.

What is this?

I am writing a book about Britain. This blog is a record of things I am thinking about as I write. Some of it may make sense, it's likely to be a bit of a ramble at time. It may also be a record of me testing my thinking and trying to work out what I want to say. I may well contradict myself over time. I'm not sure how it will progress.